J. D. Prose – 11/10/08


This page was last updated on November 16, 2008.


Political Prose: Democrats’ faces, like county, end up red; J. D. Prose; Beaver County Times; November 10, 2008.

As you read this opinion column, keep in mind Mr. Prose wears at least one other hat for the Times.  Mr. Prose is also a reporter covering political stories.  Ask yourself this.  When a pundit gives his political opinions in one part of the paper, can he be trusted to report politics objectively elsewhere in the paper?  After all, would a person whose opinion is 1+1 equals 3 report 1+1 really equals 2?

Rather than subject you to the whole column, I’ll cover only a small section.

In the “Winners” section of the column, Mr. Prose wrote, “Racism — What?  You think John McCain beat President-elect Barack Obama in the county just because of his fear-mongering campaign and Gov. Hockey Mom?  Yeah, right.  We figure it cost Obama at least 5 percentage points, which was enough.  By the way, the last Republican to win here was Richard Nixon in 1972.  Nice company.”

You’ll note Mr. Prose didn’t disclose his data source for the racism “cost Obama at least 5 percentage points” comment.

You’ll also note it didn’t appear to occur to Mr. Prose that potential bigotry may have helped Mr. Obama.  Here’s what I mean.  Below you’ll see national exit polls indicated 96% of black voters voted for Mr. Obama.  Since three Aliquippa precincts went 91.5% to 99.2% for Mr. Obama, let’s assume black Beaver County voters voted similarly to the national figures.  If black voters had voted closer to the overall average for Mr. Obama, he would have lost Beaver County by about another 5,000 votes.  That would have changed the percentages from 50.6% and 47.5% for Messrs. McCain and Obama, respectively, to 53.6% and 44.5%.

Surprise!  Current and past election data don’t appear to support Mr. Prose’s allegation.

Republican candidate Lynn Swann lost Beaver County in his 2006 run for governor, but he lost by a much smaller percentage (55%-45%) than you would expect given Democrat/Republican registration (59%/31%) at the time.  Further, that support was much better than Mr. Swann received statewide (40%) as well as in places like Allegheny (40%) and Philadelphia (11%) counties with much larger black populations (13.3% and 45.8%, respectively, vs. Beaver County’s 6.2%).  How could that be if we’re the racists Messrs. Prose, Murtha, and Rendell claim we are?  If you believe Mr. Swann did better here because of his Steelers playing days, shouldn’t our racist tendencies have overridden the positive feelings from over 20 years prior?

According to Politico.com (a Times-recommended data source), national exit polls indicated 96% of black voters voted for Mr. Obama and 55% of white voters voted for Mr. McCain.  I know of no similar poll specifically for Beaver County.  Using the national exit poll data plus Beaver County census and election data, however, it appears Beaver County white voters supported Mr. Obama at a rate approximately equal to the national rate.

Did some people here and throughout the country let skin color guide their vote?  Sure, and it’s sad regardless of which way it led those folks to vote.  That’s a long way, however, from saying Mr. Obama lost Beaver County because of racism, especially when you provide no supporting data.

When Mr. Prose alleged John McCain ran a “fear-mongering campaign,” he violated the adage about not throwing rocks when you live in a glass house.

According to FactCheck.org (another Times-recommended data source), the Obama/Biden campaign attempted to scare retirees in multiple ads and speeches by making false claims about Mr. McCain’s positions on Socialist Security and Medicare.  For example, one ad claimed Mr. McCain supported “cutting benefits in half” for SS recipients, another claimed Mr. McCain’s Medicare plan required “cuts in benefits, eligibility or both,” and in a speech Mr. Obama claimed that if Mr. McCain “had his way, the millions of Floridians who rely on it would’ve had their Social Security tied up in the stock market this week.”  All these assertions were false and were intended to scare retirees and those close to retirement into voting against Mr. McCain.

FYI, I submitted a letter to the editor (shown below) at the Times covering the racism charge.  The Times chose not to publish the letter and did not say why, though it’s possible they considered the letter too long.  The last time I submitted a letter, the Times stated policy was to give preference to letters 300 words or less in length, though longer letters were occasionally published.  The letter below is 290 words.  Several days after I submitted the letter, however, I learned the soft limit had been reduced to 250 words.  If length were the issue, I could have lopped off the last paragraph and still made the point.

In any case, this illustrates the fact that it usually takes more effort/words to refute a charge than it takes to make the charge.  It took Mr. Prose relatively few words to make his accusation because he provided no supporting data.  Refuting such claims, however, usually requires supporting data, history, and logic.  That’s why people who make “drive by” accusations sometimes have an advantage.


Here’s the letter to the editor as I submitted it.

In a recent opinion piece, Times pundit J. D. Prose opined “racism” was a “winner” because of Barack Obama’s narrow loss in Beaver County.  Mr. Prose claimed the alleged racism “cost Obama at least 5 percentage points” but didn’t disclose his data source.  Current and past election data don’t appear to support Mr. Prose’s allegation, however.

Republican candidate Lynn Swann lost Beaver County in his 2006 run for governor, but he lost by a much smaller percentage (55%-45%) than you would expect given Democrat/Republican registration (59%/31%) at the time.  Further, that support was much better than Mr. Swann received statewide (40%) as well as in places like Allegheny (40%) and Philadelphia (11%) counties with much larger black populations (13.3% and 45.8%, respectively, vs. Beaver County’s 6.2%).  How could that be if we’re the racists Messrs. Prose, Murtha, and Rendell claim we are?  If you believe Mr. Swann did better here because of his Steelers playing days, shouldn’t our racist tendencies have overridden the positive feelings from over 20 years prior?

According to Politico.com (a Times-recommended data source), national exit polls indicated 96% of black voters voted for Mr. Obama and 55% of white voters voted for Mr. McCain.  I know of no similar poll specifically for Beaver County.  Using the national exit poll data plus Beaver County census and election data, however, it appears Beaver County white voters supported Mr. Obama at a rate approximately equal to the national rate.

Did some people here and throughout the country let skin color guide their vote?  Sure, and it’s sad regardless of which way it led those folks to vote.  That’s a long way, however, from saying Mr. Obama lost Beaver County because of racism, especially when you provide no supporting data.


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